Now that most dairy farmers have their crops in for the year it’s time to consider crop inputs for 2009. What should you be ordering and/or buying now? Here are a few suggestions:
Seed corn–Yes, as soon as the university trial results are published. No reason to wait longer since the price won’t go down and buy ordering now you can take advantage of early order discounts. If you have the money (and need the expense for 2008 taxes), there’s an additional discount for early pay. Often the early pay discount is more than the cost of borrowing the money. Prices are up a little to a lot depending on the company and the traits you choose, but there are still some excellent genetics available at reasonabl cost.
Alfalfa and grass seed–Yes, since as with seed corn the prices aren’t likely to decrease and there may be shortages of some of the newer varieties. High grain prices caused some forage seed production fields to be plowed and planted to corn, soybeans or wheat, so there could be shortages of some forage species. I don’t expect anything drastic, but what do you have to lose by ordering now?
Crop protection chemicals–No. Retailers often don’t have new prices until after the New Year, so they’re less likely to cut you a deal because they don’t know what their cost will be. Besides, there’s seldom early order discounts on these products, so I’d suggest waiting a few months to buy them.
Fertilizer–Boy, this is a tough one. Urea prices dropped by over $200 per ton in one day a month or so ago, and the global financial turmoil is wreaking havoc not only on investments but on the fertilizer plans of big users including China and India. Government policy has a huge effect on fertilizer use in these countries, and China especially plays its cards very close to the vest. We’re not ordering 2009 fertilizer in 2008, but won’t wait very long into 2009 to do so. You don’t want to be pricing fertilizer just when planting is starting in the Southern U.S. Generally the best time to buy is when nobody in the U.S. is using it, which means January and February. Prices are extremely high, but unless the world economic situation gets much worse they probably won’t go down much if at all between now and summer. Words to the wise: This is based on the latest information from fertilizer industry sources, which are usually reliable but nobody’s perfect.